Quasi-bicentennial variation in temperature in the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere

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Eight Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions covering time intervals of 1192–2016 years were analyzed using Fourier and wavelet analysis and principal component analysis. A hemispheric-scale cyclicity with a period of 170–250 years was found, manifested over the past 1000 years. It was shown that this variation may have a certain contribution to the warming in the first half of the 20th century. However, the last 4–5 decades are most likely a period of decline in this cycle. Although the period of the detected variation is close to the period of the Suess solar cycle, no connection between the temperature and solar cyclicities could be found. Possible sources of the detected bicentennial periodicity are discussed.

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作者简介

M. Ogurtsov

Ioffe Institute; Central Astronomical Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences at Pulkovo

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Email: maxim.ogurtsov@mail.ioffe.ru
俄罗斯联邦, St. Petersburg; St. Petersburg

参考

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2. Fig. 1. Temperature reconstructions in the Northern Hemisphere used in the work: (a) – dendroreconstruction from Esper et al. [2002]; (b) – multi-reconstruction from Moberg et al. (2005]; (c) – multi-reconstruction without dendrodata from Loehle [2007]; (d) – multi-reconstruction from Christiansen and Ljungqvist [2012]; (d) – dendroreconstruction from Schneider et al. [2015]; (e) – dendroreconstruction from Wilson et al. [2016]; (g) – dendroreconstruction from Guillet et al. [2017]; (h) – dendroreconstruction from Büntgen et al. [2021].

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3. Fig. 2. Fourier spectra of temperature series: (a) – dendroreconstructions from Esper et al. [2002]; (b) – multi-reconstructions from Moberg et al. [2005]; (c) – multi-reconstructions from Loehle [2007]; (d) – multi-reconstructions from Christiansen and Ljungqvist [2012]; (d) – dendroreconstructions from Schneider et al. [2015]; (e) – dendroreconstructions from Wilson et al. [2016]; (g) – dendroreconstructions from Guillet et al. [2017]; (h) – dendroreconstructions from Büntgen et al. [2021]. Dashed lines – confidence level 0.95.

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4. Fig. 3. Global wavelet spectra of temperature series: (a) dendroreconstructions from Esper et al. [2002]; (b) multi-reconstructions from Moberg et al. [2005]; (c) multi-reconstructions from Loehle [2007]; (d) multi-reconstructions from Christiansen and Ljungqvist [2012]; (d) dendroreconstructions from Schneider et al. [2015]; (e) dendroreconstructions from Wilson et al. [2016]; (g) dendroreconstructions from Guillet et al. [2017]; (h) dendroreconstructions from Büntgen et al. [2021]. Dashed lines indicate confidence level of 0.95.

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5. Fig. 4. (a) – The first principal component of eight temperature series of PC1; (b) – the global Morlet wavelet spectrum of PC1, normalized to the confidence level of 0.95; (c) – the Fourier spectrum of PC1, the dotted line is the confidence level of 0.95.

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6. Fig. 5. Wavelet-filtered temperature reconstructions in the range of 171–259 years.

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