Prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by economically developed countries

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Resumo

The prospects for achieving carbon neutrality by economically developed countries (USA, EU, Norway, Canada, Japan and Australia) are studied. An analysis of the structure of energy and land use in these countries is carried out. Scenario estimates of the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of the world’s leading countries have been developed.

It is shown that the current rates of decarbonisation and development of the carbon capture and storage industry do not guarantee the achievement of climate neutrality by 2050, even in the world’s leading economies. A central challenge in achieving climate neutrality is the rapid and large-scale deployment of CCS in all its possible manifestations. All of the countries studied, except Japan, have their own capacity to store carbon for more than a hundred years.

To achieve climate neutrality, the leading OECD countries will need to ensure the annual capture of at least 6 billion tons of CO2 by 2050, which is almost 25 times higher than their current capacities (operating, under construction and under design) Despite the fact that climate change occupies almost a leading place on the global agenda, the actual results of efforts in this area are far from declared. It is no longer realistic to keep warming within 1.5°C, and at the current rate of decarbonization, even by world leaders, the defense of the second critical frontier in 2°C will soon be threatened.

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Sobre autores

V. Klimenko

National Research University «MPEI»; National University of Sciences and Technology «MISIS»; Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences

Autor responsável pela correspondência
Email: nilgpe@mpei.ru

Academician of the RAS

Rússia, Moscow; Moscow; Moscow

A. Klimenko

National University of Sciences and Technology «MISIS»

Email: nilgpe@mpei.ru

Academician of the RAS

Rússia, Moscow

A. Tereshin

National Research University «MPEI»; National University of Sciences and Technology «MISIS»

Email: nilgpe@mpei.ru
Rússia, Moscow; Moscow

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2. Fig. 1. Specific primary energy consumption per capita in developed countries (BP, 2023).

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3. Fig. 2. The structure of the fuel and energy balance (a) and electricity generation (b) in 1990 and 2022 [21]; 2050 – IEA STEPS scenario [22] for the EU, USA and Japan, national programs of Canada [24], Norway [25] and Australia [26].

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4. Fig. 3. Change in specific (a) and gross (b) energy emissions of CO2 according to data from [21] with extrapolation performed at the rate of change of the last 25 years (the “inertial” scenario), as well as the IEA STEPS scenario [23] for the EU, USA and Japan, the national programs of Canada [24], Norway [25] and Australia [26] (dashed lines).

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5. Fig. 4. Dynamics of total emissions (solid lines) and absorption (dashed lines) of GHGs (relative to the level of anthropogenic emissions in 1990) (a) and specific GHG emissions per capita (b) according to UNFCCC (2024). Extrapolation is performed at the rate of change of the last 25 years (the “business as usual” scenario) and in accordance with current national plans for achieving climate neutrality and in accordance with current national plans for achieving climate neutrality (long dashed lines).

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6. Fig. 5. Change in land area covered by wooded vegetation (compared to 1992 value) based on FAO satellite data (a) and land use structure based on FAO national inventories (b).

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7. Fig. 6. Carbon dioxide storage projects worldwide in 2020 [30] and the dynamics of their capacities (million tons of CO2/year) [31].

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